Aluminum industry development forecast

, according to the non-ferrous metal industry climate index since 2014, non-ferrous metal sentiment in the year of 56.9 points, 48.6 points back to September in general: in the first quarter is located in the “partial cold” interval, in the second quarter from the “partial cold” transition to “normal” interval; In the third quarter to maintain in the “normal” range. From the point of operation of aluminum industry in China, in the third quarter of 2014 years ago, further promote structural adjustment, smelting, processing industry trend increasingly significant differences, mainly displays in: aluminium smelting industry is still “slant cold”, and operation of aluminum rolling processing industry and nonferrous metal climate index monitoring results are consistent.

1 ~ 8, 2014 aluminium industry operation

Sentiment analysis combined with integrated by non-ferrous metal industry, aluminum industry operating mainly present production growth continued to slow, layout, adjustment of steady progress, to optimize the investment structure, smelting and processing efficiency in, etc. Specific analysis is as follows:

(a) production growth continued to slow

In August 1 ~ 2014, the national alumina production 30.6 million tons, up 5.4% from a year earlier, fell by 5% from a year earlier. Electrolytic aluminium production 15.55 million tons, up 7.6%, fell by 0.6% from a year earlier. Aluminum production 30.82 million tons, up 19.3%, fell by 5.8% from a year earlier.

(2) the layout adjustment of steady progress

Area rich in alumina production are mainly distributed in bauxite resources; Electrolytic aluminium production capacity in general continue to shows the central high cost regions from the trend of shift to energy rich western region; Aluminum processing capacity by consumption area gradually to the distribution of raw material supply. Among them, the electrolytic aluminium industry layout adjustment of the most significant effect. In August 1 ~ 2014, the electrolytic aluminium production rose 13.3% in the western China, 5.7% higher than the national average. In particular, xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, shaanxi, gansu, ningxia, qinghai and other six regions total output 8.53 million tons, up 15% from a year earlier, higher than 7.5% of the country.

(3) the investment structure was further improved

Aluminium smelting industry in China since 2013 of investment in fixed assets fall, slow down to speed up in 2014. 1 ~ 8, 2014, China’s aluminum smelting industry (including electrolytic aluminum and alumina and aluminium) completed investment in fixed assets of 35.5 billion yuan, down 33.9% year-on-year, aluminum rolling processing completed investment in fixed assets of 118.9 billion yuan, up 24.1% year on year. Visible, such as guo fa size 41 control policy and the market reversed transmission mechanism, aluminium smelting ease investment overheating, aluminum industry investment structure are downstream extension structure adjustment continuously optimized.

(4) aluminum not forged import and export were little changed

As the imported aluminum alloy expanding profit space, imports significantly increased; Driven by external demand for good, extended gains aluminum exports. In August 1 ~ 2014, import 310000 tons of aluminum, not forged year-on-year growth of 37.6%, of the imported 250000 tons of aluminum alloy, up 62.8% from a year earlier, import 60000 tons of aluminum alloy, fell 16.9% year on year; Aluminum not forged exports of 440000 tons, up 24.4% from a year earlier, in which the alloy aluminium exports of 80000 tons, up 25.4% from a year earlier, exports of 360000 tons of aluminum alloy, year-on-year growth of 24.1%, flat aluminum imports and exports, not forged a net import 170000 tons of aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy net exports of 300000 tons.

(5) aluminum resources import structure adjustments

Indonesia banned the export of bauxite policy unchanged, since April 2014, amount of bauxite imports from Indonesia to zero. China aluminum bauxite resources import structure by relying too much on Indonesia situation is gradually changing, mainly displays in: bauxite imports fall, sources of relatively scattered, Australia replaced Indonesia as China’s first big importer. In August 1 ~ 2014, import 25.11 million tons of bauxite, fell 45.6% year on year. Among them, from Australia, Brazil, Ghana and other imports accounted for 35%, 23.7% and 23.7% respectively. At the same time, alumina import quantity increased significantly. In August 1 ~ 2014, alumina import 3.58 million tons, up 76.6% from a year earlier.

(6) in the upstream and downstream industry benefits

Although prices have rebounded in the third quarter, but affected by the supply pressure, rebound and average cost, average aluminum prices are still below the electrolytic aluminium industry aluminium smelting industry benefits to fall further. 1 ~ 8, 2014, the loss of 10.1 billion yuan, aluminium smelting industry was ZengKui $4.6 billion over the same period last year. Benefit from the low prices, stable demand factors, such as aluminum rolling processing profit of 27.7 billion yuan, up 9.2% from a year earlier.